On Agricultural Statistics. By SAMUEL PAULL, Esq. [Read before the Statistical Society of London, Monday, 20th February, 1854.] ABOUT forty years ago I took a subordinate professional share in a tedious lawsuit respecting tithes over a large parish. I represented the clergyman; and as, when I took up the subject, it had been in question for several years, it will be readily imagined that a great deal of bad feeling raged in the litigants. My business was to obtain, as closely as I could, parish corn statistics; but from the farmers I could get no information whatever, and from other parties none at all satisfactory to our counsel in the suit. Still I was told by my superiors in the business that I must obtain the information they needed, and, in this extremity, I cast about in my mind for means to accomplish the object in view. It will be seen that I had to get important information without putting a question to any occupier of land in the parish, or indeed to any other person, and I now proceed to explain in what way I solved this knotty statistical problem. I had a map and terrier, or particular, of the parish lands, separated into the various holdings of the farmers. It may be necessary to premise that in every parish there is a similar terrier used for the purpose of making parish rates, and for other parish matters. Having, then, this map and terrier at my command, soon saw that if, by any stealthy means, by day or by night, I or any individual well acquainted with the parish could walk over the several farms at proper seasons of the year, noting on the maps and in the terrier the several crops in the several fields, there would be no necessity for any communication with the farmers in respect of their corn and other crops; we should obtain the required information by the means now indicated; and as the parish terrier gave the statute acreage or computed area of each field, we should ascertain the total quantity of land in every farm, under crops of all sorts.

By this simple means, we got all the corn statistics needed by our solicitor and counsel.

The very learned solicitor who conducted this important tithe case took note of my efforts to assist him in the management of it, and as he had a very high professional position, and was much employed in tithe questions, where law, learning, and close investigation were required, it was his pleasure to have me about him when engaged from time to time on knotty points; and in this and other ways I came to form a deliberate judgment on the question of parish, corn, and vegetable statistics, and to possess a quiet and safe means for obtaining them, as well as to conceive plans and arrangements of public utility, supplementary to corn statistics. To some of them I may have occasion presently to refer. My immediate object is to apply my personal experiences to the collection of the statistics of agriculture on a larger scale.

In a statistical sense, a nation is only an aggregate of parishes, as parishes are of farms; so that, if we have a sound means of obtaining corn statistics for one parish we have a sound means of obtaining the corn statistics of all of them. Let us look at this in detail. We have a terrier or particular of every parish, with or without maps,

and there are in every parish some individuals distinguished for local knowledge in respect of the parish lands-men who, on looking at the particular, can recognise every field and its locality. Now, at given times of the year, that is to say, when the lands are bearing their crops, a person so qualified could walk over the parish, map and terrier in hand, and mark every field with its visible crop; and while this individual was so employed, the parish schoolmaster, or some other competent scribe, could prepare a copy of the parish terrier, giving columns for every sort of grain and vegetable crop. Then these two men, their mutual labour being so far advanced, should introduce into its proper column the area of each field, and obtain a correct total for every column. This done, I submit that they would have obtained safe parish statistics, in so far as acreage and produce are concerned.

But here an important question arises as to the ability of the individuals whom I thus propose to employ to furnish the requisite information. In answering this question, we must not allow ourselves to be prejudiced by the personal appearance of the agriculturist or agricultural labourer; we must not allow the coarseness of his manners, if coarse they be, to blind us to his intelligence -to the faculty always in him of declaring the average produce per acre of his parish for any kind of grain or vegetable, and the consequence of unusually good or bad seasons, as they affect the average produce. After a life-long acquaintance with these men, I do not hesitate to assert that this instinctive knowledge of theirs would be justified by elaborate inquiries on the subject of parish produce. This fine faculty then being in every parish, we need not go beyond its limits to find men capable of declaring at any point of the time that a particular crop takes to reach maturity what the result will be in respect of production, both absolutely and with reference to the average produce; and were such men furnished by Government with skeleton printed papers, comprising appropriate leading questions, with clear directions how to fill them up, I submit that by these simple means our Government would have year by year safe corn and vegetable statistics of produce from every parish.

The terriers or particulars already referred to, together with the acreage and parish produce-papers now briefly noticed, having been collected from all the parishes in the kingdom, the Government, by the assistance of official men in the office of the Board of Trade, would ascertain the number of acres under grain and green crops in each parish, together with the aggregate produce of each crop; and by a simple process of addition, the whole quantity of land under every kind of crop, and the entire produce of the nation, as one large farm.

Having now placed before the Society these simple suggestions for collecting the statistics of agriculture, as starting points for discussion, I proceed to offer a few observations bearing upon other methods of procedure which have been suggested or put in practice. I must premise that up to the time of the destruction of the corn laws, and until a short time back, our agriculturists, as a body, were as little disposed to answer questions for statistical purposes as they were of old for tithe purposes. Novelties generally engender distrust, and that produces hesitation, and hesi

tation, if not met by the soundest discretion, leads to ill temper; and it is a serious question with me whether our English agriculturists are now, or are likely to be for some time to come, in such an improved condition of mind as to be able to value agricultural statistics as a national necessity-as a subject having important bearings on the importation of corn, and that importation reflecting its consequences on our home corn market, and consequently to volunteer, or willingly to afford, information leading to the results we have already seen how to reach by other means. It is no light thing to ask tens of thousands of men to disclose their private affairs for the benefit of the nation, before they have been made clearly and fully to see their own personal advantage in responding to such inquiries. The suggestions which I have made for obtaining agricultural statistics without questioning our farmers, derive additional importance from this consideration of what is due to the sensitiveness of our agriculturists in respect of their private affairs, a sensitiveness which gives additional importance to the fact so honourable to them, that the Government has entirely trusted to their generous disclosures for the agricultural statistics of three counties in Scotland.

I shall presently offer some suggestions as to what our agriculturists ought to be encouraged to do for themselves before they shall be invited to unfold their personal affairs for the good of the public. In the meantime, I will bring concisely under the notice of the Society the means which have been used for obtaining the corn statistics of a few counties, as well as the other means which have been publicly recommended for obtaining corn statistics for the whole nation.

In order to duly estimate the value of the Government measures which have been adopted for the collection of corn statistics, and the other means which have been suggested by individuals, one important question should be borne constantly in mind. These statistics having been acquired by any given means, what amount of confidence will be awarded them in the business transactions of the nation? The answer to this question is the test of the practical soundness of all statistical plans. An assertion contained in a letter on agricultural statistics, which appeared in the "Times" newspaper of the 28th of last October, will aid us in forming a sound opinion on this vital point. The letter was signed "A Farmer," and was evidently written by a thoughtful man. He is of opinion that our farmers would not make accurate returns in answer to official inquiries, because "my acquaintance with the class leads me to think that an innate jealousy of letting their nearest neighbours know what they are doing would militate very materially against their rendering accurate returns." Here, then, we have the Government, on the one hand, asking statistical information from our farmers, and putting faith in their answers, and, on the other hand, one who professes to know the minds of the farmers, declaring that no dependence can be placed on a farmer's replies to statistical inquiries. Now the consideration which makes the question before us so important is, not what statesmen think on the point, or what "A Farmer" thinks on it, but what the men think on it who may wish to govern the corn market in defi

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ance of statistical returns indicating national corn necessities, and who may, for the purpose, treasure "A Farmer's" letter in the "Times" as a foundation on which to construct the permanent assertion that the corn returns had been falsified through the impulsive innate jealousy of our farmers. Should our bankers and merchants believe such assertions as this, there would be an end of the value of agricultural statistics for mercantile purposes. No men in the nation ask more earnestly for these statistics than our bankers and merchants, but then they must have them utterly apart from doubt or dread.

I will now bring under your notice the plan adopted by Government for obtaining agricultural statistics for three counties in Scotland, and which the farmers in those counties have cheerfully and practically accepted. Mr. Hall Maxwell, the Government Agent, in forwarding the returns from the counties of Roxburgh, Haddington, and Sutherland, to the Board of Trade, thus wrote:

"The machinery employed in obtaining the estimate was simple, and proved efficient. In every district there was a committee composed of the enumerator and experienced farmers, selected from and representing each of the associated parishes. The nature and object of their services were explained in a circular addressed by me to the members of these committees before harvest. Their attention was called to the standing crops, and they were requested to institute inquiry and to obtain information within their respective parishes. Their observations were continued through the progress of the harvest, and at a late period, when experiments in weighing and threshing had been made, the committees were convened by their enumerators, the views of the members were compared and considered, and a statement was prepared and forwarded to me showing the average acreage produce of each parish in bushels of grain and

tons of roots.

"It is my duty to report to my lords that I experienced in every district the utmost anxiety to forward the object in view in a thoroughly faithful manner. The communications I have had directly with the enumerators warrant me in making this statement as to them, and they concur in representing the alacrity and good feeling with which the members of their respective committees co-operated with them.

"From this it will be observed that the returns are an estimate prepared by experienced farmers from each parish under the guidance of an enumerator for a district, the number of acres under each crop having been previously ascertained from printed schedules sent to every occupier of land. The representative farmer from each parish and the enumerator, in consultation, then put down under the various heads what, from inquiry and observation, they believed to be the average produce of each parish per acre, and that multiplied by the acres under various crops gives the result obtained.

"The cost of obtaining these returns is not yet before us, but at the estimate of 8007., which we believe was the sum authorized by Government for the experiment; the cost of obtaining similar returns for Great Britain on the same principle would amount to 80,000l. We believe that a much less expensive and more accurate system

could be devised, and it is very doubtful whether the plan of the Highland Society, however successful in Scotland, will be found at all practicable in the English counties where the land is so much more subdivided and intermixed."

This, then, is the Highland Society's scheme as practically sanctioned by Government.

The above quotations appeared in the "Times" newspaper of the 11th of December ultimo, but on the 17th of last September the letter already brought under your consideration appeared in the same paper from the hand of "A Farmer," in which he argues in favour of these corn statistics, affirming that, in order to be of any use these returns must be made by the producer alone. But shortly afterwards Mr. Cooke published a letter on agricultural statistics, addressed to the President of the Board of Trade, advocating the employment of district surveyors instead of the "producers." This induced "A. Farmer" to reconsider his suggestions.

The pith of his letter inserted in the "Times" of October 28th, after his consideration of Mr. Cooke's suggestions, will be found in the following quotations:

"What Mr. Cooke says about acreage farms, if I understand him right, would be of no practical use; the circumstances affecting different farms vary every year; different lands are variously affected by seasons and many other circumstances well known to practical farmers. There is no other way of obtaining accurate information such as would be of any practical use, than by ascertaining what each inclosure is likely to supply for the current year. The only question is, whether this information should be supplied by the occupier or through the medium of a district surveyor; either would suffice if it was well done; but I am inclined to think that the system of district surveyors would be most to be relied upon, as he would make it his business, while the occupier might be apt to think it a trouble imposed upon him, and that as long as he made the return it would not matter whether it was accurate or not." And then follows the sentence before quoted: "my acquaintance with the class leads me to think that an innate jealousy of letting even their nearest neighbours know what they are doing would militate very materially against their rendering accurate returns."

"With respect to the power of obtaining the contents of each separate inclosure, without incurring the expense of a new survey, I will merely mention that no land valuer finds any difficulty when he is employed to value an estate in obtaining the information which he must know to value the acreage."

In the extracts which I have now laid before you I have literally produced for your consideration all the rational schemes I have ever seen to meet our imminent statistical necessities, for, as is well known, we really cannot say within 10,000,000 quarters or so what quantity of grain we produce in this kingdom.

As to Mr. Cooke's scheme, I shall, I hope, be pardoned for quoting a paragraph from the "Daily News," extracted from a leader on statistics, which appeared on November 11th.

"The newest proposition on this head is that of Mr. Cooke, in the just published letters to the President of the Board of Trade. He