(32) Such are the results of the foregoing calculations, regarding the number of emigrants existing in America, which, though founded upon the laws of Nature, instead of theory, and supported by facts instead of hypothesis, I offer to the reader's consideration, without giving an opinion as to whether any or all of them err in deficiency or in excess, or to what degree they may possibly do so. Conversations and correspondence I have had upon the subject of the probable proportion of the emigrants of all nations in the United States, compared with the whole population, which have led me to form a strong opinion on the subject; as they have been held with those of both countries, well competent to judge: and to colloquial authority, I might, perhaps, as properly appeal, as Mr. Malthus frequently does, in favour of his theory; but I object to resting any part of my argument upon private information. I must, therefore, submit the preceding calculations as so many approximations to the precise truth, founded, it is hoped, upon no unfair basis. Whether the history and effects of emigration, as already given, will admit of a smaller accession, others may determine; a far less numerous one would suffice for my argument, which will ultimately prove how much the increase of any community must be accelerated by even a relatively small but constant accession of adscititious numbers. I shall, however, first confirm the general deductions of this chapter, by a further examination of the American censuses, upon an entirely different principle. 526 CHAPTER X. OF EMIGRATION TO NORTH AMERICA, PROVED BY THE LAW OF MORTALITY, AS APPLIED TO THE NUMBERS IN SUCCESSIVE CENSUSES. (1) IT is greatly to be regretted, in every point of view, that the American legislature has prescribed a different mode of taking the censuses of that country, in respect of its divisions into ages, than had previously prevailed, wherever that discrimination had been made. The Swedish censuses, under the direction of Wargentin, had, long ago, attained to a degree of correctness, which, it is to be feared, those of no other country have since equalled; in these the term of human life was distributed into sections, each comprising an equal number of years, though some of the first periods were also still more minutely divided for particular purposes. This arrangement rendered it perfectly easy to trace every class through succeeding censuses taken at periods equally distant, and to deduce from thence the effect of advancing age, or, in other words, the law of mortality at every period of life, together with many other interesting results. The American census, on the contrary, is divided into such arbitrary and unequal terms, that the sections in the preceding and succeeding ones have not the least relation to each other. Whatever were the motives for such a deviation from the obvious and established mode, those of science are completely frustrated by it. The argument I am now pursuing would have been rendered wholly unnecessary, had the regular method prevailed, as the numbers of the same sections, "progressing" through successive censuses, would have manifested the perpetual influence of emigration. The argument, however, still remains, and may be advanced through a somewhat more difficult and circuitous path; and the validity of the preceding observations will be better estimated as we pursue it. We (2) Taking the last census of 1820, there is not in this, any more than the others, any one section which we can trace from the preceding ones. will, however, attempt to overcome this difficulty; and first, as it respects the concluding one, namely, the free white population of forty-five years of age and upwards: the total amount is 957,353. The simple question here arises, whether, out of the population of America, forty-five years before, namely, in 1775, that number of persons could have survived. Impossible! what, then, has swelled the number to such an amount? Emigration, not "procreation, only." For this once, we are rid of this eternal proviso, as none could so antedate procreation, as to add to this class, after the first period mentioned, a single individual. (3) In order to determine the probable number in this division, which has been added during the interim by emigration, it will be necessary to fix upon the number of white inhabitants in America, in 1775; and, by applying the law of mortality to this number, the remainder, compared with the amount in the last division of the census of 1820, will determine the question. (4) The total number of inhabitants in the United States, in 1782, Mr. Malthus says, were 2,389,3001; which statement Mr. Coxe confirms, and says, it was 1 Malthus, Essay on Population, p. 339. made the ground of congressional assessment'. In 1780, Mr. Warden informs us, that the amount was 2,051,000. But from these numbers must be deducted the black population, unless we are to · admit, as miraculous, a metamorphosis in colour, as we must in sex, in order to get rid of emigration. These amounted, at about this period, to above half a million. Perhaps, however, we may rate the white population, at this time, somewhat higher than these statements would admit us to do. The best accounts, as Coxe says, (concurring in this matter with Lord Sheffield,) make it 1,700,000 3. (5) But in order to obviate any cavil which cavil which may be raised, whether concerning the exactness of this statement, or the rate of mortality which will be applied to it, I will, at once, transfer this entire amount several years backward; thereby reserving a sufficient number to answer all objections which might be urged against the computation, on whatever grounds. Let, then, 1,700,000 be the white population of America in 1775; how many of these would be now in existence, and comprised, of course, in the division of the censuses which give the population of forty-five years old and upwards, in the whole of the United States! (6) In determining this question, I avail myself of a table constructed by Mr. Milne, upon the basis of the Swedish censuses, and in which the mortality is calculated on the hypothesis of a stationary population, which is a most necessary consideration in this instance; and I do this, not because it best answers the end of ultimately exhibiting the largest surplus of numbers attributable solely to emigration, for, in this Finch Coxe, View of the United United States, vol. iii., p. 229. States, p. 200. 3 Coxe, View of the United States, p Warden, Statistical Account of the 200. point of view, those of Susmilch, Dr. Price, and others, would suit better; but because the censuses of Sweden have already been confidently appealed to for the purpose of exemplifying, and indeed "demonstrating," the geometric theory. "The expectation of life" may appear lower, especially at birth, in Sweden, than in some other European countries; but I am of opinion, that this is owing, in no inconsiderable degree, to the superior exactness with which the Swedish registers, especially regarding infants, have been long kept; while, on the other hand, the palpable negligence of many other similar documents in this particular has raised that "expectation" elsewhere to a height which amounts to a palpable absurdity. (5) But in transferring the rate of mortality of Sweden to Americå, I am again making an unnecessary surrender of part of my argument. The latter country is, compared with Europe, indisputably unhealthy. All the statements, documents, and tables, I have yet seen, confirm this fact. Even the most confident assertor of American increase, Mr. Malthus, acknowledges that "the climate of the United States is not particularly healthy." A very accurate observer, especially on these subjects, Dr. Douglas, in his remarks on the personal constitution of the people born in British America, written in the earlier half of the last century, notices, indeed, their precocity, compared with the inhabitants of the mother-country, but he adds, "their longevity falls much shorter2;" and Mr. Warden acknowledges, that the country is not now so healthy as formerly; in a word, that "diseases "are much more frequent3." At present," says ii., p. 483. Malthus, Essay on Population, vol. Dr. Douglas, Summary, vol. ii., VOL. I. pp. 347, 348. Warden, Statistical Account of the United States, vol, i., p. 301. 2 M |