be equally essential to the calculations, to learn the nature and amount of the accessions to that population, which are known to have been, in this instance, great and unceasing. It will, then, be satisfactory to confirm the results thus obtained, and the effects deducible from them, by facts and observations generally recorded; and to shew them to be not only irreconcileable to what is called "the principle of population," but fully confirmatory of another and a better system. Previously, however, to entering upon these more important parts of the argument, I shall examine, somewhat particularly, the statement put forth by the anti-populationists, touching the progress of population in certain states of North America, on which the theory they advocate is solely founded.

401

CHAPTER II.

OF THE ERRONEOUSNESS OF THE SUPPOSED FACTS AND DEDUCTIONS RELATIVE TO PARTICULAR STATES OF AMERICA, ON WHICH THE GEOMETRIC THEORY IS FOUNDED.

(1) BEFORE I proceed to the consideration of more important parts of the present argument, I shall examine, as succinctly as possible, the particular proofs (and they are the only ones) of the geometric theory of human increase,-being those derived from the progress of population in particular States in North America. These, though often repeated during more than a generation past, and, hitherto, uncontradicted, are totally fallacious; and it is high time the public were disabused regarding them. The facts, however, which will be brought forward in some of the succeeding chapters, would have rendered the present more particular examination of these fallacies unnecessary; but their detection will not only demolish the erroneous theory of population; it will prepare the foundation for another and a better system.

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(2) The pretended proofs are these, and, I repeat, they are the only ones I have ever yet seen advanced. Throughout all the northern provinces" (of America) "the population was found to double itself in twenty"five years. The original number of persons which "had settled in the four provinces of New England, in "1643, was 21,200. Afterwards, it was calculated "that more left them than went to them. In the In the year "1760, they were increased to half a million. They

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had, therefore, all along, doubled their number in "twenty-five years. In New Jersey, the period of doubling appeared to be twenty-two years; and, in "Rhode Island, still less. In the back settlements, "where the inhabitants applied themselves solely to "agriculture, and luxury was not known, they were supposed to double their number in fifteen years. Along the sea-coast, which was naturally the first inhabited, the period of doubling was about thirty"five years; and, in some of the maritime towns, the population was absolutely at a stand. From the late "census made in America, it appears, that, taking all "the States together, they have still continued to dou"ble their numbers every twenty-five years. And as "the whole population is now so great, as not to be "materially affected by the emigrations from Europe, "and as it is known that, in some of the towns and "districts near the sea-coast, the progress of population "has been comparatively slow, it is evident, that in "the interior of the country, in general, the period of "doubling, from procreation only, must have been con"siderably less than twenty-five years 1." I will only add, that these statements were put forth many years ago, and are still repeated, and the ratio of increase contended for, it is now said, is "demonstrated" to be independent of foreign accessions.

(3) I shall first observe, on certain parts of this statement, that the assertions that the population of the maritime towns is at a stand, is incorrect, and that the inhabitants in the back settlements ever doubled themselves in fifteen years, is impossible; as will be fully shewn in the first chapters of the next book of this treatise.

(4) First, as it respects New England generally:

1 Malthus, Essay on Population, pp. 338, 339.

this part of the United States, as forming the basis of American population, will be more particularly examined, in reference to this subject, in the ensuing chapter, in which it will be seen on how incorrect a basis the preceding calculation is founded; in the mean time, I will remark here, that had I wanted a disproof of the theory I am opposing, I could not have wished for one of a more decisive character than that afforded by this very province. Let us continue the proof by means of those facts which time has since afforded. Assuming the statement made above to be true, and that there were, in 1760, in those States, 500,000 inhabitants, there ought to be, at the end of other five years, from the present time (1830,) 4,000,000 people, that is, according to the geometric ratio; whereas, there were, in 1820, 1,424,090 only, and they were increasing after the rate of 13 per cent. only decennially. Since the censuses have been accurately taken, the population of New England, including the States of Maine and Vermont, has augmented as follows1:

Which numbers give an increase during the first decenniary of rather more than 22 per centum; in the second, of upwards of 19; while that of the third, was still further diminished to less than 12 per centum; disproving therefore, at once, any geometric ratio of increase whatsoever, and indicating a happier principle of population, which will be developed and proved hereafter. If the population in 1760 was 500,000, the increase between that period and 1790,

1 National Calendars.

indicated a period of doubling of about 30 years; from 1790 to 1800, that term had enlarged to about 35 years; from 1800 to 1810, to 40 years; and the last, namely, from 1810 to 1820, it had still further lengthened, and had become 60 years.

(5) Should it be objected to this total disproof of the theory under examination, as founded upon the population of New England, that increasing misery has checked the natural progress of human increase in its States, the supposition would be negatived by another series of statistical facts, equally striking and conclusive. The increase of prosperity has not merely kept pace with, it has greatly exceeded that of the population, amongst whom we are assured the preventive check does not exist at all1, and it may be added, that they are as little chargeable with that kind and degree of vice which could injure the procreative faculties, as, probably, any community upon earth3. (6) "In New Jersey the period of doubling appeared to be 22 years. This assertion is taken from Dr. Price, who states, that in 1738, the number of inhabitants there was taken by order of government, "and found to be 47,369. Seven years afterwards, "the number of inhabitants was again taken, and "found to be increased by procreation only, above "14,000" (or 61,403) 3. This remark, "by procreation only," I deny, simply because it is impossible to be true, as I shall shew. Further observations are therefore, perhaps, unnecessary. I may, however, notice, that the population, other eighteen years afterward, namely, in 1763, was still only stated as being "more than sixty thousand." What should have hindered

1 Dr. Seybert, Statistical Annals,

p. 52.

2 See Dr. Dwight's character of the New Englanders-Travels passim.

3 Dr. Price, Revers. Payments, vol. i., pp. 276, 277.

4 Dr. Holmes, American Annals, vol. ii., p. 222.